February 2012 NFL Events
Betting on football online
Steelers are back, winning and covering the spread
2010-09-29
Parity is alive and well in the NFL. There are only three undefeated teams remaining and none of them made the playoffs last year. The Steelers, Bears and Chiefs are all 3-0. Meanwhile, bettors at Sportsbook.com have profited nicely on Pittsburgh and KC as each team is also 3-0 against the spread (ATS).a
With the Chiefs on a Week 4 bye, we’ll hold off a week before going in-depth on the team that has been the surprise of the NFL thus far. The Steelers, meanwhile, are an intriguing case because they’ve achieved success without two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Oddsmakers feared the worst when watching the Steelers’ backup passers look dubious this preseason, and even went so far as to make Pittsburgh a home underdog in the season opener against the Falcons. But a strong running game and a bone crushing defense have led the way to their impressive start.
Since Roethlisberger took over as the Steelers’ starting QB as a rookie in 2004, he’s missed 11 starts, including the first three this season. Two of those were Week 17 games when Pittsburgh was already in the playoffs and probably would’ve played Big Ben in a more pressing situation—plus, other key players were given those games off. In the other nine Roethlisberger-less games, the Steelers are now 7-2 ATS and 6-3 SU.
Thus, the trend becomes clear that oddsmakers overreact when Roethlisberger is out. This year has featured three relatively easy covers, with Pittsburgh beating the point spread by an average of 14.5. As talented as Roethlisberger is, the cliché is true: The Steelers are a running and defensive team. With 10 takeaways and 33 points allowed, Pittsburgh’s defense has been nothing short of dominant.
Perhaps the biggest reason the Pittsburgh defense has returned to dominance is the return to health of All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu. Although he started five games in 2009, Polamalu really only had an impact in four being that he left the game with a knee injury while making a tackle on Cincinnati’s first possession of Pittsburgh’s 18-12 loss on Nov. 15. The Steelers went 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS in those four games with Polamalu; they were an un-Steelers-like 5-7 SU, 3-8-1 ATS when their star safety wasn’t on the field. With Polamalu missing three quarters of last season, Pittsburgh limped to a 5-10-1 ATS record—the Jaguars and Lions were the only other NFL teams with an ATS winning percentage under 35% in 2009.
What happens next? The Steelers are favored by a slim 1.5-point margin this Sunday at home against AFC North rival Baltimore, a team against which they were 1-0-1 ATS last season despite that fact that a) Roethlisberger sat out their first meeting, a three-point overtime road loss for the Steelers, who were getting 7.5 points in that game; and b) Polamalu missed both contests. A more general trend: NFL teams starting 3-0 SU since 2007 are 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in their fourth game. Expect the Steelers to emerge Sunday afternoon as the only NFL team with a 4-0 ATS record to start the season.
To check out more football statistics and NFL betting trends head over to Sportsbook.com.
Jay Cutler and Matt Forte cannot do it all alone for the Bears, they do need help2010-06-18First of all, Jay Cutler needs to improve his horrible touchdown to interception ratio (27 to 26) that he posted in 2009. That interception total is by far the most he has thrown in his four year NFL career. Not only does he need to develop more consistency in 2010 with ratio, but his receivers need to do so as well. Chicago does not have a true No.1 or star receiver. Who the heck in the NFL [at least at the moment] is afraid of Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu, Rashied Davis, Juaquin Iglesias, and Johnny Know? No one that's who. Even each of those five receivers have talent and athleticism of their own, neither one of them have established themselves in the NFL as of yet and part of the reason for that is their youth. Neither one of them have been with the Bears for more than four full seasons.
So that in essence is what Cutler has to deal with. Matt Forte, their star two-dimensional running back, is the best overall player on their offense these days but he CANNOT do it all alone. His body can only take so much. But Cutler despite all the youth and lack of big time ability at receiver, has to be held accountable too. Those receivers are in the NFL for a reason, which means that they belong in this league somehow, and smart NFL betting knows that the Bears have had some real trouble at the Receiver position.
Cutler has the arm strength, the accuracy (when he wants to), the brains (he went to Vanderbilt for God sakes!), and the talent to succeed in this league. But this writer doubts he will ever get as far as he is capable of with the receivers they have. Tight end Greg Olsen is a stud, but he like Forte is only one man (although a very talented man). Olsen is not only a safety valve for Cutler, but he is a heck of an athlete and he can be a vital weapon when the receivers are jammed up in coverage. But don't think defenses haven't seen how much of a vital cog Olsen is to this offense. Because if he gets hurt or goes down, Chicago is in trouble.
The good thing about Cutler though, is that he doesn't have to worry about looking over his shoulder for competition at his position. Caleb Hanie, Brett Basanez, and rookie Dan LeFevour are future players who aren't ready to start for anyone in this league let alone the Bears right now.
Cutler has been tantalizing Bears fans with his talent but one year is an unfair time to assess him. If he stinks up the joint with another INT to TD ratio like in 2009, there may be calls for his head. Barring injury and huge inconsistency, Cutler should be much better in 2010. The Bears have the defense and just enough talent to make some noise in the NFC North. Adding former Minnesota and Baltimore standout Chester Taylor at running back will help the Bears and Forte in 2010. Like Forte, Taylor has been stupendously successful as a runner and pass catcher out of the backfield. The onus for the Bears to be successful offensively in 2010 doesn't all fall on Cutler's shoulder's, those receivers have to step up too. Bennett though 4th on the team in catches and 3rd in receiving yards, but its time for him to start making the transition to between 900 to 1,000 yards receiving. He and Cutler played two years together at Vanderbilt, so there has to be some synchronicity with those two.
But if Cutler goes down to injury so goes the Bears season. He, Forte, and the development of the Bears receivers are some of the most vital elements of whatever the Bears will do in 2010, and NFL betting are keeping a keen eye on them. They have the defense, the starting offensive line is good (although 40 percent of it is aging), and head coach Lovie Smith believes in Cutler. New offensive coordinator Mike Martz demands perfection and Cutler will have to adjust or there could be some problems between those two. Martz loves to throw the ball and tire out defenses with multiple passing routes, and Cutler excels at throwing intermediate, short, and deep passes. Cutler has the talent to succeed in Martz's offense, and his systems for years have made some already gifted or talented receivers and quarterbacks look even better than they should. Then there's the fiasco in San Francisco with Martz and Alex Smith. And Smith is a calm guy and Cutler is not exactly the quietest guy in the room.
Martz and Cutler's relationship could either blow up in the Bears faces or their relationship could place Cutler in the Pro Bowl for years to come. Its pressure being an NFL quarterback, and this story shows that. Cutler has a lot to overcome if he hopes to take the Bears to the next level.
Where do you do your NFL betting? Head over to www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
NFL: BALTIMORE at GREEN BAY (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)2009-12-07Green Bay and Baltimore share wildcard aspirations in their respective conferences. The teams will go head-to-head at Lambeau Field on Monday night to wrap up the Week 13 slate. The NFL’s top ranked defense will be on display in the contest, and for those of you not familiar with the NFL of 2009, it is Green Bay owning that designation, not the Ravens. That’s why the Packers are in the role of favorites for this contest, laying 3-points at Sportsbook.com.
The Packers are 7-4 and facing a 2-game road trip following this one, placing a premium on gaining a victory here. They are just 2-5 SU (4-3 ATS) on Monday night under Mike McCarthy though. Green Bay will have had what accounts for almost a bye week before this one, 11 days since winning at Detroit on Thanksgiving. The Ravens own a 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark vs. non-conference foes under John Harbaugh and face their next three games against NFC North opponents. They are 7-6 after beating Pittsburgh, 2-3 on the road. Home teams have swept the L3 meetings between these teams, both SU & ATS.
The Packers have come a long way since a loss to previously winless Tampa Bay in Week 8 dropped them to .500. Their convincing 34-12 victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day was their third in a row and improved their chances in a wild-card race sure to come down to the wire as usual.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers tied a career-high with three touchdown passes and cornerback Charles Woodson had two of four interceptions of Detroit rookie signal-caller Matthew Stafford, returning one for a game-sealing touchdown, to lead Green Bay to its ninth straight win over the Lions.
Rodgers comes into Monday night’s game at Lambeau Field against Baltimore in a serious groove with 881 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions since the defeat to the Buccaneers. It should also be noted he’s been sacked only three times in the last two games working behind a much-maligned offensive line that gave up 41 sacks through nine contests. He’s thrown an interception in only three games all year, and his 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 104.9 rating are among the best in the NFL.
For the Ravens, this is their third prime-time game in four weeks. The last time they played on Monday their defense pitched a shutout at lowly Cleveland but the offense struggled to put points on the board. One of their two touchdowns in the 16-point victory was a pick six by Dawan Landry. Last Sunday night’s win over Pittsburgh put them a game over .500, but they’ve produced just 58 points over the past month.
This week could ultimately determine if Baltimore returns to the playoffs following an appearance in the AFC Championship Game last season. After the Packers only one of its last four opponents has a winning record (Steelers) and the other three (Lions, Bears and Raiders) are floundering.
The Ravens need to get back to stretching defenses, and with pass-rushing linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris missing from Green Bay’s lineup it’ll be up to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to turn second-year quarterback Joe Flacco loose. Flacco completed only two touchdown passes in five November games and also had three sub-200-yard efforts. Derrick Mason (52 catches, five touchdowns) can expect to work against Woodson, who ranks tied for second in the league with seven interceptions.
PREDICTION: The Packers would feel great about their playoff chances if they get this one, but to do so they’ll have to protect Rodgers from the teeth of a defense capable of turning a game in the Ravens’ favor at any time. BALTIMORE 20, GREEN BAY 19
NFLPS: Chicago at Denver Game Preview2009-08-31Sunday night offers up one of the most intriguing games of the NFL Preseason, as Jay Cutler and the Bears visit his former club, the Broncos on a NBC national telecast. Denver is a small home favorite, but over 70% of bettors were backing the visitors to beat the number. Read on for a closer look at this game then visit the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for more key info.
Jay Cutler would be wise to keep his pie-hole shut Sunday night and absorb the booing the Denver Broncos faithful will rein on him and just play football. The former Vanderbilt product showed a rocket arm with oodles of potential in the Rockies, unfortunately proved to have skin thinner than a slice of salami, talking his way out of the Mile High City when his new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t shower him with love and had the gall to check into the services of other available quarterbacks.
Once traded to Chicago, the now windy Cutler, fit right into the Windy City, ripping Broncos fans (later apologizing) compared to Bears’ loyalists and later suggesting Devin Hester is limited as pass receiver. Of course Culter hasn’t exactly made anyone forget Billy Wade or Sid Luckman (very old school Bears QB’s) by his performances thus far, other than having All-Pro foot in mouth offseason.
Lovie Smith’s Bears have looked like most NFL teams this time of year, part choppy and part pretty good. Chicago played well at home last week in containing the Giants in 17-3 as 2.5-point favorites. They will look to do the same in Denver, but are 2-12 ATS off a home win.
Coach McDaniels acted like a rookie coach the way he handled the Cutler saga, but could not have bargained for his best receiver Brandon Marshall, would be so insubordinate he’d have to suspend for the rest of the preseason, with the rest of the story to evolve.
Quarterback Kyle Orton has looked out of place in Denver uniform, throwing numerous bad passes (including interception left-handed). The Denver front office put on happy face after trading for Orton in Cutler deal, hoping the former Purdue chucker could just manage games, much like he did in Chicago. Though nothing really matters yet, Orton has definitely not settled into his new surroundings.
Maybe positive support from the home fans will help, as they see Orton in Broncos home uniform for first time. Denver is 11-2 ATS at home after one or more consecutive straight up losses.
Sportsbook.com has the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites with total listed at 38. Denver is 11-1 ATS when they are below .500 in the preseason. The Bears are 9-21 ATS in the final two weeks of the exhibition season and 12-3 OVER in road games off one or more games going Under the total.
The NBC crew should have field day with this matchup which starts at 8 Eastern.
StatFox Power Line – Denver by 6
NFL Handicapping Feature - Top NFL Playoff Statistical Angles2008-01-03Although team statistics are just one piece of a large puzzle a handicapper needs to put together to enjoy success in the NFL Playoffs, they are an important piece, as they can often signify tendencies and overall strength of the various teams. But which stats matter the most to playoff success? To help answer this question, I’ve taken the results of past past postseason games since 1993 and cross-referenced them against the statistics of the teams playing going into that game. The statistical categories considered were some of the most common found at places like StatFox.com and other websites covering the NFL. Here is a list of the categories:
- Won-Lost Records
- Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game
- Scoring Differential
- Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
- Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Attempt
- Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Game
- Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Attempt
- Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Play
- Turnover Differential
Considering the simplistic nature of this study, I didn’t expect to find any goldmines in looking for the records of teams holding edges in these statistical categories going into playoff games. However, I was able to uncover six different successful angles that have won at rates better than 55% since ’93. I will go through those shortly, listing the teams qualifying on wildcard weekend. First, here’s a look at the recipe to winning playoff games:
Trends of Teams from Stats Recorded during a Playoff Game
There are three key statistical angles that winning playoff teams generally possess: more rushing yards, more yards per pass attempt, and fewer turnovers in that game. The turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 113-21-3 ATS (84.3%). Similarly, teams that rush for more yards in a playoff game are 121-35 ATS (77.6%). Naturally one could argue that the team that is ahead will run the ball more, but still it is key to know which team can better control the line of scrimmage. Finally, teams that average more yards per pass attempt, or those that create more big plays through the air, have compiled a mark of 110-46 ATS (70.5%) in playoff games. Big plays via the passing game give teams leads, which in turn allow them to run the ball more and avoid turnovers. When you combine the factors and find teams that have edges in all three key statistical aspects, the records go to 73-2 SU & 66-6-1 ATS (91.7%). In fact, home teams that have enjoyed edges in all three have a perfect record of 53-0 SU since 1993 in the playoffs! I can’t stress enough how important it is to have a strong game simulator, such as the one on FoxSheets.com, on your side to help you project these key rushing, passing, and turnover statistics in a game.
Statistical Angles of Teams Heading into a Playoff Game
I’ve discussed on several occasions so far how difficult it is to project statistics in a game, even for the sharpest of handicappers. Therefore, it’s usually a more common exercise to utilize historically successful statistical angles that can be easily applied by looking at the stats that a team has accumulated heading into a game. Naturally, the records of these angles won’t be as glaringly potent as those above, but they can still prove valuable to a handicapper. In fact, they will probably be a step up for “Joe Public”, who does his handicapping by reading the morning paper. Of the categories listed earlier, here are those that won at better than a 55% rate ATS, along with the teams qualifying this weekend.
Won-Lost Records:
- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) are 26-16 ATS (61.9%) in the playoffs since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: None
- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) and favored in the range of 7-9.5 points are 11-5 ATS (68.8%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: None
- Since ’00, road teams in the playoffs that have a better or equal record to the home team are 12-7 ATS (63.2%).
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: NY Giants, Jacksonville
- Over the last eight playoff seasons, home teams with a winning percentage edge of .165 or more (16.5%) over their road opponent are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS (72.7%).
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: None
Scoring Statistics
Offensive Points Per Game
• Teams with an offensive points per game edge going into a playoff game are 79-64 ATS, or 55.3% since ‘93. However, since ’00, that record is just 40-38 ATS for 51.2%.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, NY Giants, San Diego
Rushing Statistics
Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
• Teams with a rushing yards per game edge on defense going into a playoff game are 79-64 ATS, or 55.2% since ’93, showing that the ability to stop the run outweighs offensive rushing attacks. Since ’00, that record is 45-34 ATS for 57.0%, showing the importance of a stout rush defense has increased in recent years.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Washington, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Tennessee
Defensive Yards Per Rush
• Teams with a Yards Per Rush edge on defense going into a playoff game are 75-55 ATS, or 57.7% since ’93, again showing that the ability to stop the run outweighs any offensive rushing numbers. Since ’00, that record is 44-32 ATS for 57.9%, showing that defensive YPR has indeed proven a key stat to keep an eye on in recent postseasons.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
Passing Statistics
Offensive Passing Yards Per Game
• Teams with a passing yards per game edge on offense going into a playoff game are 80-63 ATS, or 55.9% since ’93, an improvement of 4.9% over rushing yardage. Since ’00, that record improves to 46-32 ATS for 58.9%, showing that passing is clearly becoming a more important ingredient to playoff success.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Diego
Offensive Yards Per Pass
• Teams with a yards per pass edge on offense going into a playoff game are 75-60 ATS, or 55.5% since ’93, very similar to the straight yardage calculation for
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Diego
Yards Per Play Statistics
Offensive Yards Per Play
• Teams with a yards per play edge on offense going into a playoff game are 81-61 ATS, or 57.0% since ’93, adding another fairly successful stat category to our postseason handicapping arsenal. Since ’00, that record drops slightly to 44-34 ATS for 56.4%, but still at a success rate that would net profitability each playoff year.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Diego
Summary
The fact that four of our top six categories are offensive statistics dispels the notion that “defense wins championships”. Naturally, the next task is to combine the top categories to see if teams enjoying edges in more than one successful statistic enjoy further success. Incidentally, teams enjoying an edge in ALL SIX of these categories are 18-7 ATS since ’93 in the playoffs, including 14-2 ATS in the divisional round.
Here are five successful playoff stat combos that achieved better than 60% ATS success in our study:
* Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game are 43-28 ATS (60.5%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: NY Giants
* Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Yards Per Rush are 36-18 ATS (66.7%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: None
* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Passing Yards Per Game are 35-19 ATS (64.8%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Tampa Bay
* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Pass Yards Per Attempt are 32-16 ATS (66.7%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Tampa Bay
* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Yards Per Play are 32-13 ATS (71.1%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Tampa Bay
Friday – Denver at Washington2007-11-09Washington can’t throw it in the Potomac River; Gilbert Arenas surgically repaired knee is filling up like a water balloon. The last time the Wizards started this bad they had a different nickname, the politically incorrect Bullets. Not to worry, its early right? Back in early 1992, Ross Perot was the leading presidential candidate, how did that end up? The Beltway bunch is 1-8 ATS off a cover.
I actually read on FoxSports.com this a must win game for Denver. Must win! Does this game have like quadruple value in the win/loss column? Maybe it’s because the Denver players talked about winning 60 games this year. Did I miss something; when did the NBA regular season sked go to 100 games, because that’s the only way these Nuggets win 60. Some people look forward to the weekend not Denver, they are 4-13 ATS on Friday nights.
Can you really trust a team that gave 119 points in consecutive road games? Not really, Washington overrides Denver.
