2009-01-27

The “StatFox Super Bowl Scuffle” has become as big of a tradition as parties, commercials, and gambling when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday. Well, not really, but readers do seem to like it, as it is always one of the most popular pieces of the year. This year will mark the fourth edition of the Super Bowl Scuffle, in which StatFox representatives Steve Makinen and Doug Upstone debate the wide array of betting options available on Sunday. So sit back and enjoy. Perhaps the guys can help you uncover a golden nugget buried underneath the excessive options and vigorish.

We’ve taken all of the odds from Sportsbook.com, recognized as the web’s leader in game and prop betting options. All odds are considered (-110) unless noted.

StatFox (Moderator): Hello everybody, and welcome back to another edition of the StatFox Super Bowl Scuffle, the fourth edition of the popular props debate between Steve Makinen, a.k.a StatFox Steve and Doug Upstone, or StatFox Doug. Steve performs a variety of services for StatFox, not the least of which is Managing Editor of the rapidly growing weekly Platinum Sheet publication. Doug is the lead writer for StatFox.com and is an experienced sports handicapper. So, without further ado, I welcome in our distinguished contributors. Good day guys, hope you’re both getting ready for the big game!

StatFox Steve: Hey everyone, hello Douglass, my man, I trust your local Scottsdale stores are keeping the shelves stocked with Arizona Super Bowl gear (and sunscreen)? Up here in frigid Wisconsin I’m just happy I took the plunge and got myself a new snowthrower. Trust me, it’s been put to good use. Nothing breaks the winter up better than Super Bowl Sunday though. I am pumped and ready to roll…I’m sure you’re suffering from Scarlet Fever, so I hope you can take an unbiased look at this year’s game.

StatFox Doug: Steve, it has been hotter than a "cougar convention" at one of the local Scottsdale beverage establishments. While you poor folks in the Midwest and East have suffered with bitterly cold temperatures, we have have people here complaining it's too hot already, with temps 75-80 for weeks. Things have really heated up with the Bird Fever. While much of the country suffered the affects of a recession, being in the Arizona Cardinals jersey and t-shirts business takes away any feelings of a bad economy.

StatFox: Wow, yes, it’s easy to forget that Doug resides in Cardinal Country. We trust Doug will put aside any personal feeling he harbors in the pursuit of gambling happiness on Super Bowl Sunday. So let’s get to it, I’ll list the props, you guys simply tell which option you prefer and why. Best of luck to both of you.

GAME POINTSPREAD
PITTSBURGH -7
ARIZONA +7
SF Doug: I believe this was a very astute line by the oddsmakers. I can see Arizona leading into the second half, before Pittsburgh starts to rattle Kurt Warner and slow down the Cardinals offense. Though I can see Pittsburgh covering, I’ll say Arizona needs two scores, kicks the field goal to trail by six and doesn’t recover onside kick to lose.
SF Steve: Pittsburgh’s shortcomings offensively, and the fact that the better seeds have covered only one Super Bowl in the last 13 years has me leaning toward underdog Arizona here.

GAME TOTAL
OVER 46.5
UNDER 46.5
SF Steve: UNDER. In both of the last two Super Bowl games Pittsburgh has been in, the game went under the total by more than a touchdown. The reason is the pace and physical style of play. The Steelers can’t afford to have this one played any other way.
SF Doug: Between the side and total, definitely prefer to play the Over here. Pittsburgh will move the ball all day and Arizona with two weeks to prepare will have good schemes and have a few surprises. The Steelers win the Super Bowl 30-24, with the total going OVER.

FIRST-HALF LINE
PITTSBURGH -4
ARIZONA +4
SF Doug: The last five Super Bowls have been games with margin of four points or less at halftime and I don’t see that changing. Arizona plus the points.
SF Steve: Arizona +4. Typically, a team like Pittsburgh tends to wear an opponent down over the course of a game. This is the reason you don’t see many First Half Line trends favoring the Steelers when you look at the weekly FoxSheets. It’s hard to envision more than a field goal separating these teams after 30 minutes.

FIRST-HALF TOTAL
OVER 23.5 (-115)
UNDER 23.5 (-105)
SF Steve: UNDER. So far this season, Pittsburgh has scored 56% of its points after halftime, Arizona has scored 53%. Considering I’m leaning towards the UNDER for the full game, taking the OVER at the half simply doesn’t make sense.
SF Doug: I can see both coaches being aggressive wanting to establish the upper hand to get the defenses off balance and 27 points and OVER is my call.

TEAM TO RECEIVE THE OPENING KICK OFF
PITTSBURGH (+100)
ARIZONA (-130)
SF Doug: Tom Brady and the offense will start take the field at the 28-yard line, after the Giants defer to the second half.
SF Steve: ARIZONA. Pittsburgh figures to be the more likely team to defer to its defense if it wins the coin toss. There’s no way the Cardinals will do that.

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FIRST 6 MINUTES OF THE GAME
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Steve: YES. I think Arizona has to try to force the issue early in this game. That will mean taking a chance with a long pass or trick play. Thus the chances for an early score are increased.
SF Doug: Yes they will and look for a trick play by either team to be an important reason as to why.

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE LAST 2 MINUTES OF 1ST HALF
YES (-240)
NO (+180)
SF Doug: I’m going to say No. Though both quarterbacks are capable, coaches tend to be more conservative, preferring to make sure nothing bad happens rather than possibly something good.
SF Steve: NO. This is such a high price to pay, so like last year, I’m not going to fall into the assumption that there is automatically going to be a score before halftime, as it didn’t happen in either of the last two years.

SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
OVER 1.5 (+110)
UNDER 1.5 (-140)
SF Steve: UNDER. This prop always gets my attention, and my logic for seemingly always taking the UNDER is the frequency of pass interference calls in the end zone that set the ball up at the 1-yard line. It isn’t the presence or lack thereof power goal-line running backs.
SF Doug: Both teams have been very good in short yardage in the playoffs, though I do not see a one-yard plunge, take the Under.

LONGEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
OVER 44.5 (-115)
UNDER 44.5 (-115)
SF Doug: With Larry Fitzgerald, Santonio Holmes and even Willie Parker, a big play will happen, bet the Over.
SF Steve: UNDER. Unlike recent Super Bowl games, I don’t think these teams rely on striking the big play. In fact, Fitzgerald is probably the most capable player of beating this number and I consider him more of a possession type receiver than a burner.

TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS SCORED IN THE GAME
OVER 5.5 (+120)
UNDER 5.5 (-150)
SF Steve: UNDER 5.5. The pace of the Super Bowl has slowed in the past four years, and with Pittsburgh’s defense going to be on the field for about half the game, I’d think TD’s will again come at a premium.
SF Doug: In theory, oddsmakers are telling us the final score should be about 27-20, which suggests five touchdowns under normal circumstances. Because I have higher total score, I’ll take the Over with a total of six TDs.

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME
OVER 14.5 (-120)
UNDER 14.5 (+100)
SF Doug: Not a chance one team bolts to big lead. The familiarity aspect of the coaches will limit any such event, play Under.
SF Steve: UNDER. I will again point to Pittsburgh’s offensive difficulties this season as the reason why they won’t be able to separate from Arizona. On the other side, the Steelers’ defense will keep them in the game if they fall behind.

WILL THE TEAM THAT SCORES FIRST WIN THE GAME?
YES (-200)
NO (+160)
SF Doug: This used to be an automatic in the playoffs in general that the team to score first won 70 percent of the time. But like getting a meal on an airplane, those days are gone, No is the way to go.
SF Steve: NO. In this year’s playoffs, the team that scored first won just four of the 10 games if memory serves. Plus, the price associated with the NO is very attractive.

TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN BY BOTH TEAMS
OVER 2.5 (+135)
UNDER 2.5 (-170)
SF Steve: UNDER. With two Super Bowl experienced quarterbacks on the field, I don’t think either will be taking many chances. I expect a more careful performance from Roethlisberger this time around.
SF Doug: The two quarterbacks have a total of two in five games in the postseason, unless something really fluky occurs like five tipped passes or something, going Under.

WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
YES (+145)
NO (-175)
SF Steve: NO. I’ve learned from playing Fantasy Football that whenever you hope for this type of play it doesn’t happen. Only one of the past five Super Bowl games has had a defensive/special teams TD.
SF Doug: Neither special teams are “special” enough and Pittsburgh had its defensive moment two weeks ago, playing No.

TOTAL NET YARDS BY BOTH TEAMS
OVER 666.5 (-115)
UNDER 666.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. The StatFox Game Estimator projects 615 yards of offense in the contest. Considering I’m leaning towards a lower scoring game, and this projection is 51.5 yards shy of the prop, I’ll go UNDER.
SF Doug: Using the simplistic approach of taking the teams averages for yards gained and allowed on the season, it comes out to 622 yards. Good enough for me to play the Under.

CARDINALS - WILL THEY EVER HAVE THE LEAD VS THE STEELERS?
YES (-220)
NO (+170)
SF Doug: The Cardinals might have the lead at halftime and will actually lead at some point of the second quarter.
SF Steve: Yes. Neither team in this matchup is dominant enough where they can be expected to control the game for 60 minutes. I expect a back-and-forth contest and am willing to lay the -220 in that belief.

STEELERS - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 115.5 (-115)
UNDER 115.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. This is a strangely inflated price. Pittsburgh averages 105 RYPG, Arizona yields 105 RYPG, but just 77.3 RYPG in the playoffs. This game will come down to which team makes more plays through the air.
SF Doug: Pittsburgh has surpassed that total twice in the last six games and that was against teams with weaker run defenses. The Steelers will be close, but fall short, play Under.

CARDINALS - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 72.5 (-115)
UNDER 72.5 (-115)
SF Doug: The Cardinals have rushed the ball well in three previous playoff games and not one of those teams is even close to being the Pittsburgh. Over 60 yards probably, but 72.5, don’t think so.
SF Steve: OVER. The Cardinals running backs aren’t blessed with speed but their dedication to the run throughout the postseason suggests at least 25 or so rush attempts.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL PASSING YARDS
OVER 230.5 (-115)
UNDER 230.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I think Pittsburgh needs Big Ben to come up big here, but an OVER in passing yards for him in no way guarantees success against the spread on Sunday. In fact, six of the last seven losing Super Bowl teams passed for 230 yards or more.
SF Doug: The Steelers have averaged 10.8 yards per completion and Arizona has surrendered 10.7 YPC. The oddsmakers are saying suggesting 17.5 completions for Big Ben, which is well Under this listed total doing the math.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL COMPLETIONS
OVER 17.5 (-115)
UNDER 17.5 (-115)
SF Doug: OVER. On the season, Pittsburgh has averaged 19 completions and should make that number again.
SF Steve: UNDER. Roethlisberger surpassed the 17-completion mark just five times during the 18-game season. His completion percentage of 59.9% doesn’t warrant it either.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES THROWN
OVER 1.5 (-155)
UNDER 1.5 (+125)
SF Doug: Throwing support to the Over, with the Cards corners overaggressive at times and Hines Ward and Heath Miller are money in the red zone.
SF Steve: OVER. A very cautious over. I envision about 2-3 touchdowns for Pittsburgh overall, and I believe it will be up to Big Ben to make these plays.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - WILL HE THROW AN INTERCEPTION
YES (-145)
NO (+115)
SF Steve: YES. Roethlisberger’s interceptions are more a function of the pressure he has faced this year than his inaccuracy. Arizona figures to pressure him with blitz schemes as much as possible.
SF Doug: YES. Roethlisberger has been a little too clean with the ball and throws one up for grabs in the Big Game.

WILLIE PARKER - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 80.5 (-115)
UNDER 80.5 (-115)
SF Doug: This will be right up against it, however Parker goes Over because of this ability to take off on a 20-yard jaunt.
SF Steve: UNDER. With the way Arizona is stuffing the run in the postseason, it seems unlikely that Parker, and his 3.8 YPR, will surpass 80 yards.

WILLIE PARKER - WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Steve: NO. With just a handful or so of expected TD’s, taking anyone at even odds just doesn’t make sense.
SF Doug: I have room for another touchdown, so YES, the undrafted free agent hits paydirt.

MEWELDE MOORE - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 15.5 (-115)
UNDER 15.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Moore has four carries for 19 yards in the playoffs, what changes unless Parker is injured. Play Under.
SF Steve: OVER. I like taking change of pace players or specialists on OVER props in the Super Bowl, as I think these players are utilized more to throw a wrinkle into the game plans.

HINES WARD - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 65.5 (-115)
UNDER 65.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Assuming Ward is at full strength on Sunday, he is Pittsburgh’s biggest playmaker. I expect this former Super Bowl MVP to again play a big role in the game. He surpassed 65.5 yards receiving eight times in Pittsburgh’s 18 games and will be counted on more than usual here.
SF Doug: Not certain if Ward’s injured knee will be 100 percent. If healthy no problem, but I see more underneath and first down catches totaling Under this figure.

HINES WARD – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 5 (+105)
UNDER 5 (-135)
SF Doug: OVER. Check Ward out of sick bay, as he makes six catches and I don’t have to pay juice!
SF Steve: YES. A big time yes if Ward is healthy. The comfort level that Roethlisberger has with Ward in unmatched on the Pittsburgh roster and he will be thrown to a lot.

SANTONIO HOLMES - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 58.5 (-115)
UNDER 58.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. Unless Holmes hits a 40+ yard play, I just don’t see him being that big of a factor as the second receiver, or third if you count Heath Miller.
SF Doug: This is a gift as Holmes is isolated on Roderick Hood and beats him twice for 20+ yards gains, plus other catches adding up to over 75 yards.

SANTONIO HOLMES – LONGEST RECEPTION
OVER 20.5 (-115)
UNDER 20.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Are you serious, Steve is Hood and I’m Holmes, Beep, Beep. Over friends.
SF Steve: UNDER. Holmes had catches of 21 yards or more in eight of 18 games. In my math, that doesn’t equate to even odds, especially in the Super Bowl, where the opposing defense is much more prepared.

HEATH MILLER - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 45.5 (-115)
UNDER 45.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I’ll go OVER here although I believe it will be close. Miller averaged 40.9 YPG in 15 appearances overall, but 55.8 YPG over the last month. He figures to get more than average attention from Big Ben this week.
SF Doug: Go with the Over on this prop. Miller has no healthy issues, is on same page as Big Ben, and tight ends are used as safety valves more often in big games.

HEATH MILLER – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 3.5 (-105)
UNDER 3.5 (-125)
SF Doug: As tempting as this is, Miller makes three very important catches and no more, Under.
SF Steve: OVER. Miller caught 4.8 passes per game over the last month. That and my belief that Pittsburgh will have to throw to win lead me to an OVER play here.

JEFF REED – TOTAL POINTS
OVER 8.5 (+115)
UNDER 8.5 (-145)
SF Steve: UNDER. I believe eight is critical number for Reed. Once you get to the 8.5 mark, you start needing 5-6 scores to have a chance at this one. Going with the UNDER in the game, so UNDER here too.
SF Doug: If the Steelers score 30 points, that means three field goals in all likelihood and Reed goes Over comfortably.

KURT WARNER - TOTAL PASSING YARDS
OVER 255.5 (-115)
UNDER 255.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Only Philip Rivers surpassed this number all season against Pitt defense in the Divisional Round, thanks to 62 yard pass and run by Darren Sproles late in the game. Arizona can throw the pigskin, but 94 yards over season average for No. 1 pass defense, don’t think so.
SF Steve: UNDER. While I believe Warner will play well on Sunday, I can’t look past the fact that only one quarterback surpassed 255.5 yards passing on Pittsburgh this year.

KURT WARNER - TOTAL COMPLETIONS
OVER 23.5 (-115)
UNDER 23.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. It takes a lot to complete 24 passes in a game. Even if Warner does attempt 40, which I don’t think he will, hitting 60% on a team that pressures the QB like Pittsburgh is difficult.
SF Doug: Warner has averaged just over 20 completions in the playoffs, nevertheless, with Arizona trailing in the fourth quarter will have to throw the ball and settles at 25.

KURT WARNER - TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES THROWN
OVER 1.5 (-145)
UNDER 1.5 (+115)
SF Steve: OVER. As steep as the price is on this prop, Fitzgerald is on such a roll that he & Warner could beat this prop with no other help.
SF Doug: Put me down for three touchdowns for the former World League and Arena quarterback. You don’t think he’d have the same impact on the Super Bowl, nah, that’s just crazy. Over.

KURT WARNER - WILL HE THROW AN INTERCEPTION
YES (-220)
NO (+170)
SF Doug: He might even throw two, but the first one will come on throwing the ball up for grabs trying to elude James Harrison.
SF Steve: No. Pittsburgh has been as opportunistic as it has been strong on defense. However, Warner seems to have gotten over his shaky ways under pressure this season and +170 is a nice price.

EDGERRIN JAMES - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 42.5 (-130)
UNDER 42.5 (+100)
SF Doug: No doubt James would love to win a ring, but let’s not kid ourselves, he’s looking for his next stop and wants to prove he’s still worth a good salary as starting running back. Play Over.
SF Steve: OVER. Oddsmakers are giving Pittsburgh a ton of credit here. James rushed for 75.8 YPG over the last four, and Arizona has found a rededication to the ground game in the playoffs.

EDGERRIN JAMES - WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (+300)
NO (-400)
SF Steve: NO. Although I won’t play this myself because of the excessive vig, I just don’t believe there will be that many touchdowns to go around, and in my opinion, there’s a better chance they’ll come through the air.
SF Doug: It’s a heavy price, but James only goes into the end zone during warm-ups.

TIM HIGHTOWER - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 20.5 (-115)
UNDER 20.5 (-115)
SF Doug: He’ll be more useful catching than running it, Play Under.
SF Steve: OVER. Hightower has averaged 11.3 carries per game in the postseason. I don’t see Arizona changing from that recipe unless they get down big early.

J.J. ARRINGTON - TOTAL RUSHING PLUS RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 16.5 (-115)
UNDER 16.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Yes, it is true, I am going OVER for all three Arizona running backs. I don’t think oddsmakers have taken the last three weeks Cardinals’ game into enough consideration. Plus, Arrington is the speed back that Arizona will need to mix it up.
SF Doug: Arrington will be more bundled up than an out-of-towner thinking the Grand Canyon was a warm weather stop in Arizona this time of year. Taking the Under.

LARRY FITZGERALD - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 95.5 (-115)
UNDER 95.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. It isn’t often that players get on as much of a roll has Fitzgerald has. It reminds me a lot the Jerry Rice or Terrell Owens situations in past Super Bowls. He will be thrown to early and often. For good reason, he is the best WR in the NFL right now.
SF Doug: I’ve never heard if Fitzgerald has a nickname, but Crazy Glue would work as everything he touches sticks. He’s on fire right now, you have to respect the Over.

LARRY FITZGERALD – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 6.5 (-115)
UNDER 6.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Unless Fitzgerald gets hurt or Anquan Boldin decides to run the same exact routes, this has to go Over.
SF Steve: OVER. I’m not convinced that Fitzgerald will be able to hit any real big plays, but I do believe he will be targeted at least a dozen times.

LARRY FITZGERALD – WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Doug: This is a safer bet than Steve being on the wrong side of the side or total of the XLIII. Yes.
SF Steve: YES. Every time Arizona gets in the red zone this is going to be a threat with the way Fitzgerald has dominated the playoffs. Pittsburgh’s corners can’t match him.

ANQUAN BOLDIN - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 68.5 (-115)
UNDER 68.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. Warner just doesn’t seem to have the same repoirte with Boldin now as he does with Fitzgerald. The former’s sideline outburst isn’t going to help either.
SF Doug: Like Anquan said about his outburst during Arizona’s winning drive against Philly, it will be no big deal when he goes Under the total. (Then it will be a BIG deal)

ANQUAN BOLDIN – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 5.5 (-130)
UNDER 5.5 (+100)
SF Doug: I can see Boldin totaling five of Warner’s tosses, no more, Under.
SF Steve: UNDER. I love the +100 line on this one as well as the lofty number of 5.5. I truly believe this is Boldin’s last game with Arizona. I don’t see him going out big.

ANQUAN BOLDIN – LONGEST RECEPTION
OVER 18.5 (-115)
UNDER 18.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Only way Boldin goes past this figure is with a calculator, punching times (X) 2.
SF Steve: UNDER. I’ll go with the trifecta under on Boldin. Many of his big yardage plays come on runs after the catch. Pittsburgh tackles much better than the NFC West.

STEVE BREASTON - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 40.5 (-115)
UNDER 40.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Breaston is the one receiver on Arizona that can beat Pittsburgh with speed. I expect him to be targeted on deep balls at least a couple of times in this game. One hit and this goes over. It’s easy to forget that this guy had 1,006 yards in the regular season.
SF Doug: This is among my favorites, since I think Pittsburgh will focus on the main guns of Fitzgerald and Boldin. I see Breaston having upwards of 70 or more yards, surpassing Boldin easily.

NEIL RACKERS - TOTAL POINTS
OVER 7 (-115)
UNDER 7 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I’m targeting about 20-23 points for Arizona in this game and not all the scores will be TD’s. Two FG’s puts you in a comfortable spot.
SF Doug: My math calls for six and no more and I’ll even throw in a missed field at no extra charge.

PITTSBURGH - ADJUSTED LINES
-3.5 (-160)
-10.5 (+125)
-14.5 (+210)
-17.5 (+300)
-21.5 (+450)
+3.5 (-400)
+7.5 (-800)
+10.5 (-1100)
SF Steve: -10.5 (+125). Searching purely from a value standpoint, laying the 10.5 at +125 would seem to be the best play on this list if you’re backing the Steelers.
SF Doug: Taking the +10.5 is crazy stupid based on the risk/reward ratio, thus laying -3.5 is within my wheelhouse.

ARIZONA - ADJUSTED LINES
+3.5 (+130)
+10.5 (-155)
+14.5 (-280)
+17.5 (-400)
+21.5 (-700)
-3.5 (+300)
-7.5 (+500)
-10.5 (+650)
SF Doug: A blowout just looks unrealistic, taking the +17.5 points at 1-4 odds is something I could live with.
SF Steve: +3.5 (+130). I’d probably be willing to lay the 3.5 points with the Cardinals seeing as how the Super Bowl has gone in recent years. However, I think the +3.5 would seem to make the most sense.

TOTAL POINTS - ADJUSTED TOTALS
OVER 38.5 (-320)
UNDER 38.5 (+240)
OVER 41.5 (-200)
UNDER 41.5 (+160)
OVER 52.5 (+170)
UNDER 52.5 (-220)
OVER 59.5 (+325)
UNDER 59.5 (-450)
SF Steve: UNDER 41.5 (+160). In truth, I’m of the believe that the 46.5 point total is inflated by at least 3 points, considering one of the NFL’s best defenses in history is playing. I will actually play this one myself – UNDER 41.5, getting the +160.
SF Doug: I see more points, not less because of the quarterbacks, playmakers and coaches. The Over 52.5 has a nice payout and fits my 30-24 outcome to a tee.

SUPER BOWL XLIII MVP
Adrian Wilson (Cardinals) +5000
Anquan Boldin (Cardinals) +1500
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +175
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Cardinals) +4000
Edgerrin James (Cardinals) +1500
Heath Miller (Steelers) +3000
Hines Ward (Steelers) +1500
James Farrior (Steelers) +3000
James Harrison (Steelers) +3000
Karlos Dansby (Cardinals) +5000
Kurt Warner (Cardinals) +250
Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) +500
Nate Washington (Steelers) +4000
Santonio Holmes (Steelers) +1500
Steve Breaston (Cardinals) +4000
Tim Hightower (Cardinals) +1800
Troy Polamalu (Steelers) +1000
Willie Parker (Steelers) +700
xz Field (Any Other Player) +800
SF Steve: FITZGERALD +500 or POLAMALU +1000. There are two dominant players in this game and both are capable of overtaking the QB’s for MVP honors. Depends who wins.
SF Doug: I’m going with the longshot. Since I started looking at this matchup, Santonio Holmes has been like a recurring dream in terms of big plays. Awesome payout if Big Ben gets him the ball in stride.

MARGIN OF VICTORY
Cardinals Win By 01-03 pts +600
Cardinals Win By 04-07 pts +800
Cardinals Win By 08-11 pts +1800
Cardinals Win By 12-15 pts +2500
Cardinals Win By 16-19 pts +5000
Cardinals Win By 20-23 pts +5000
Cardinals Win By 24-27 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 28-31 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 32-35 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 36-39 pts +10000
Cardinals Win By 40 or more +10000
Steelers Win By 01-03 pts +500
Steelers Win By 04-07 pts +400
Steelers Win By 08-11 pts +500
Steelers Win By 12-15 pts +600
Steelers Win By 16-19 pts +1200
Steelers Win By 20-23 pts +1500
Steelers Win By 24-27 pts +1500
Steelers Win By 28-31 pts +2000
Steelers Win By 32-35 pts +3000
Steelers Win By 36-39 pts +4000
Steelers Win By 40 or more +4000
SF Steve: The days of the favorite winning straight up and being an automatic cover in the Super Bowl are over. As such, I’ll take both teams to win in the 01-03 point range, Arizona at +600, Pittsburgh at +500.
SF Doug: Same message as last year, bettors make money by acquiring steady growth, not chasing longshots (I actually do like Holmes above). Backing Pittsburgh to win by 4-7 points. Boring yes, prudent no doubt.