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Betting on football online
Steelers are back, winning and covering the spread
2010-09-29
Parity is alive and well in the NFL. There are only three undefeated teams remaining and none of them made the playoffs last year. The Steelers, Bears and Chiefs are all 3-0. Meanwhile, bettors at Sportsbook.com have profited nicely on Pittsburgh and KC as each team is also 3-0 against the spread (ATS).a
With the Chiefs on a Week 4 bye, we’ll hold off a week before going in-depth on the team that has been the surprise of the NFL thus far. The Steelers, meanwhile, are an intriguing case because they’ve achieved success without two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Oddsmakers feared the worst when watching the Steelers’ backup passers look dubious this preseason, and even went so far as to make Pittsburgh a home underdog in the season opener against the Falcons. But a strong running game and a bone crushing defense have led the way to their impressive start.
Since Roethlisberger took over as the Steelers’ starting QB as a rookie in 2004, he’s missed 11 starts, including the first three this season. Two of those were Week 17 games when Pittsburgh was already in the playoffs and probably would’ve played Big Ben in a more pressing situation—plus, other key players were given those games off. In the other nine Roethlisberger-less games, the Steelers are now 7-2 ATS and 6-3 SU.
Thus, the trend becomes clear that oddsmakers overreact when Roethlisberger is out. This year has featured three relatively easy covers, with Pittsburgh beating the point spread by an average of 14.5. As talented as Roethlisberger is, the cliché is true: The Steelers are a running and defensive team. With 10 takeaways and 33 points allowed, Pittsburgh’s defense has been nothing short of dominant.
Perhaps the biggest reason the Pittsburgh defense has returned to dominance is the return to health of All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu. Although he started five games in 2009, Polamalu really only had an impact in four being that he left the game with a knee injury while making a tackle on Cincinnati’s first possession of Pittsburgh’s 18-12 loss on Nov. 15. The Steelers went 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS in those four games with Polamalu; they were an un-Steelers-like 5-7 SU, 3-8-1 ATS when their star safety wasn’t on the field. With Polamalu missing three quarters of last season, Pittsburgh limped to a 5-10-1 ATS record—the Jaguars and Lions were the only other NFL teams with an ATS winning percentage under 35% in 2009.
What happens next? The Steelers are favored by a slim 1.5-point margin this Sunday at home against AFC North rival Baltimore, a team against which they were 1-0-1 ATS last season despite that fact that a) Roethlisberger sat out their first meeting, a three-point overtime road loss for the Steelers, who were getting 7.5 points in that game; and b) Polamalu missed both contests. A more general trend: NFL teams starting 3-0 SU since 2007 are 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in their fourth game. Expect the Steelers to emerge Sunday afternoon as the only NFL team with a 4-0 ATS record to start the season.
To check out more football statistics and NFL betting trends head over to Sportsbook.com.
Jay Cutler and Matt Forte cannot do it all alone for the Bears, they do need help2010-06-18First of all, Jay Cutler needs to improve his horrible touchdown to interception ratio (27 to 26) that he posted in 2009. That interception total is by far the most he has thrown in his four year NFL career. Not only does he need to develop more consistency in 2010 with ratio, but his receivers need to do so as well. Chicago does not have a true No.1 or star receiver. Who the heck in the NFL [at least at the moment] is afraid of Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu, Rashied Davis, Juaquin Iglesias, and Johnny Know? No one that's who. Even each of those five receivers have talent and athleticism of their own, neither one of them have established themselves in the NFL as of yet and part of the reason for that is their youth. Neither one of them have been with the Bears for more than four full seasons.
So that in essence is what Cutler has to deal with. Matt Forte, their star two-dimensional running back, is the best overall player on their offense these days but he CANNOT do it all alone. His body can only take so much. But Cutler despite all the youth and lack of big time ability at receiver, has to be held accountable too. Those receivers are in the NFL for a reason, which means that they belong in this league somehow, and smart NFL betting knows that the Bears have had some real trouble at the Receiver position.
Cutler has the arm strength, the accuracy (when he wants to), the brains (he went to Vanderbilt for God sakes!), and the talent to succeed in this league. But this writer doubts he will ever get as far as he is capable of with the receivers they have. Tight end Greg Olsen is a stud, but he like Forte is only one man (although a very talented man). Olsen is not only a safety valve for Cutler, but he is a heck of an athlete and he can be a vital weapon when the receivers are jammed up in coverage. But don't think defenses haven't seen how much of a vital cog Olsen is to this offense. Because if he gets hurt or goes down, Chicago is in trouble.
The good thing about Cutler though, is that he doesn't have to worry about looking over his shoulder for competition at his position. Caleb Hanie, Brett Basanez, and rookie Dan LeFevour are future players who aren't ready to start for anyone in this league let alone the Bears right now.
Cutler has been tantalizing Bears fans with his talent but one year is an unfair time to assess him. If he stinks up the joint with another INT to TD ratio like in 2009, there may be calls for his head. Barring injury and huge inconsistency, Cutler should be much better in 2010. The Bears have the defense and just enough talent to make some noise in the NFC North. Adding former Minnesota and Baltimore standout Chester Taylor at running back will help the Bears and Forte in 2010. Like Forte, Taylor has been stupendously successful as a runner and pass catcher out of the backfield. The onus for the Bears to be successful offensively in 2010 doesn't all fall on Cutler's shoulder's, those receivers have to step up too. Bennett though 4th on the team in catches and 3rd in receiving yards, but its time for him to start making the transition to between 900 to 1,000 yards receiving. He and Cutler played two years together at Vanderbilt, so there has to be some synchronicity with those two.
But if Cutler goes down to injury so goes the Bears season. He, Forte, and the development of the Bears receivers are some of the most vital elements of whatever the Bears will do in 2010, and NFL betting are keeping a keen eye on them. They have the defense, the starting offensive line is good (although 40 percent of it is aging), and head coach Lovie Smith believes in Cutler. New offensive coordinator Mike Martz demands perfection and Cutler will have to adjust or there could be some problems between those two. Martz loves to throw the ball and tire out defenses with multiple passing routes, and Cutler excels at throwing intermediate, short, and deep passes. Cutler has the talent to succeed in Martz's offense, and his systems for years have made some already gifted or talented receivers and quarterbacks look even better than they should. Then there's the fiasco in San Francisco with Martz and Alex Smith. And Smith is a calm guy and Cutler is not exactly the quietest guy in the room.
Martz and Cutler's relationship could either blow up in the Bears faces or their relationship could place Cutler in the Pro Bowl for years to come. Its pressure being an NFL quarterback, and this story shows that. Cutler has a lot to overcome if he hopes to take the Bears to the next level.
Where do you do your NFL betting? Head over to www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
NFLPS: Chicago at Denver Game Preview2009-08-31Sunday night offers up one of the most intriguing games of the NFL Preseason, as Jay Cutler and the Bears visit his former club, the Broncos on a NBC national telecast. Denver is a small home favorite, but over 70% of bettors were backing the visitors to beat the number. Read on for a closer look at this game then visit the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for more key info.
Jay Cutler would be wise to keep his pie-hole shut Sunday night and absorb the booing the Denver Broncos faithful will rein on him and just play football. The former Vanderbilt product showed a rocket arm with oodles of potential in the Rockies, unfortunately proved to have skin thinner than a slice of salami, talking his way out of the Mile High City when his new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t shower him with love and had the gall to check into the services of other available quarterbacks.
Once traded to Chicago, the now windy Cutler, fit right into the Windy City, ripping Broncos fans (later apologizing) compared to Bears’ loyalists and later suggesting Devin Hester is limited as pass receiver. Of course Culter hasn’t exactly made anyone forget Billy Wade or Sid Luckman (very old school Bears QB’s) by his performances thus far, other than having All-Pro foot in mouth offseason.
Lovie Smith’s Bears have looked like most NFL teams this time of year, part choppy and part pretty good. Chicago played well at home last week in containing the Giants in 17-3 as 2.5-point favorites. They will look to do the same in Denver, but are 2-12 ATS off a home win.
Coach McDaniels acted like a rookie coach the way he handled the Cutler saga, but could not have bargained for his best receiver Brandon Marshall, would be so insubordinate he’d have to suspend for the rest of the preseason, with the rest of the story to evolve.
Quarterback Kyle Orton has looked out of place in Denver uniform, throwing numerous bad passes (including interception left-handed). The Denver front office put on happy face after trading for Orton in Cutler deal, hoping the former Purdue chucker could just manage games, much like he did in Chicago. Though nothing really matters yet, Orton has definitely not settled into his new surroundings.
Maybe positive support from the home fans will help, as they see Orton in Broncos home uniform for first time. Denver is 11-2 ATS at home after one or more consecutive straight up losses.
Sportsbook.com has the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites with total listed at 38. Denver is 11-1 ATS when they are below .500 in the preseason. The Bears are 9-21 ATS in the final two weeks of the exhibition season and 12-3 OVER in road games off one or more games going Under the total.
The NBC crew should have field day with this matchup which starts at 8 Eastern.
StatFox Power Line – Denver by 6
NFL: Will Jaguars Have Bite as Home Underdog? (8:15 PM ET, NFL Network)2008-12-19A year after winning a dozen games, including one in the postseason, and reaching the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, nobody predicted Jacksonville would fall so precipitously to 5-9. Tonight, the Jaguars will try to play the spoiler, as they take on division rival Indianapolis as a 6-point home dog. At last check 86% of bettors were backing the Colts.
Buried in last place in the AFC South, the Jaguars own poor numbers that reflect their position in the standings. The Jaguars are 20th in total offense, 17th in rushing defense, T-17th in sacks and a turnover ratio of minus-2.
Jacksonville (4-10 ATS), which split its first six games, has won just two of seven at home heading into this Thursday night game at Municipal Stadium.
After topping Detroit, 31-21, the Colts have the longest current winning streak in the NFL—seven games—and are approaching their seventh straight trip to the playoffs.
The Jaguars have been chasing Indianapolis (10-4, 5-8-1 ATS) ever since the NFL went to its current division format in 2002 and pitted them as rivals in the AFC South. But that’s not to say these teams have been separated by a wide margin. Even though Jacksonville trails the all-time series, 11-4, all but five of the matchups have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, with the Jaguars 9-3-1 ATS in last dozen meetings.
Indianapolis is one of five teams the Jaguars have beaten this season. It happened in Week 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Fred Taylor, who two weeks ago passed O.J. Simpson on the all-time rushing list, moving into 16th place, rushed for 121 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew added 107 yards and a touchdown to lead Jacksonville to a 23-21 victory in one of their highlight victories of the season. Quarterback David Garrard completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards.
The Colts knocked Garrard out of the first of two meetings a year ago when they rolled to an easy 29-7 victory in Week 7 as three-point road favorites.
Garrard left in the second quarter with an ankle injury and former backup Quinn Gray was picked off twice and held to 56 yards passing on 24 attempts.
Seven weeks later, a healthy Garrard (257 yards, two touchdowns) and Peyton Manning (288, 4 TDs) hooked up in an old-fashioned shootout also won by Indianapolis, 28-25, failing to cover the touchdown favorite role.
Both Garrard and head coach Jack Del Rio received hefty offseason contracts, and neither has delivered in the first year of the deal. Just last week Garrard eclipsed 3,000 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-to-10, and Del Rio has been unable to keep problems from spilling out of the locker room.
For the most part, the Colts bring out the best in the Jaguars. Typically they give a great effort and Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS as December dogs against AFC South foes. It will be interesting to see if the Jags use a similar offensive game plan as last week, using tight ends in short passing game and throwing deeper passes to Dennis Northcutt, who had first 100-yard receiving game in four years last week.
Jacksonville has not covered consecutive games since weeks 15 and 16 last season.
Sportsbook.com has the Colts as six-point pick, with the total lodged at 44.
Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS as road favorite of six or less with revenge, plus 14-3 against the spread after two straight wins by 10 or more points.
Normally at this time, Indy has wrapped up division and is healing injuries for playoffs. Not this year and despite the Jaguars record, this will be good test for Colts run defense, which appears improved, however facing Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit might be a bigger reason why they look better. Amazingly, Tony Dungy’s club is only 1-10 ATS versus weaker defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play.
This will be the final Thursday night telecast on the NFL Network for this season, which will start at usual 8:15 Eastern time. This series is like Charley Brown and Lucy, with Jacksonville being the underdog for the 16th time in a row facing the Colts.
StatFox Forecaster – Jacksonville covers
StatFox Power Line – Indianapolis by 5
StatFox Outplay Factor – Indianapolis by 5
Friday – Denver at Washington2007-11-09Washington can’t throw it in the Potomac River; Gilbert Arenas surgically repaired knee is filling up like a water balloon. The last time the Wizards started this bad they had a different nickname, the politically incorrect Bullets. Not to worry, its early right? Back in early 1992, Ross Perot was the leading presidential candidate, how did that end up? The Beltway bunch is 1-8 ATS off a cover.
I actually read on FoxSports.com this a must win game for Denver. Must win! Does this game have like quadruple value in the win/loss column? Maybe it’s because the Denver players talked about winning 60 games this year. Did I miss something; when did the NBA regular season sked go to 100 games, because that’s the only way these Nuggets win 60. Some people look forward to the weekend not Denver, they are 4-13 ATS on Friday nights.
Can you really trust a team that gave 119 points in consecutive road games? Not really, Washington overrides Denver.
